Although US President Donald Trump has declared that he will impose 50% tariffs on India’s exports, official estimates indicate that this will only affect 4.8% of India’s overall exports of goods and services globally, which reached a record $820 billion in 2024–2025.

According to a senior official, the Trump administration’s 50% duty will only be applied to shipments to the US that total $40 billion.

Additionally, over $30 billion worth of exports, including pharmaceuticals and other technological goods like smartphones, semiconductors, and energy, are still immune from additional levies since they are still on an exemption list.

In FY25, India exported $10.5 billion worth of pharmaceuticals and medications, as well as $14.6 billion worth of electronics (mainly smartphones), which accounted for 29% of its total outbound shipments to the United States.

Energy’s inclusion on the exemption list also protects petroleum exports, which are valued at $4.09 billion in FY25, from Trump’s new tariffs. In FY25, Indian exports to the US totaled $86.51 billion.

These important industries are not yet included by Trump’s new tariffs, which are set to take effect in 21 days.

Due to this exception, which eliminates tariffs on some commodities, India’s exports to the US have grown since January of this year. The US’s share in India’s merchandise exports rose from 17–18% to above 20% between January and June 2025.

Industry experts say that this surge is a result of exporters frontloading before the tariff hike in August and the tariff exemptions on pharmaceuticals and smartphones that were free from the 10% baseline duty that was implemented in April.

According to data from the Commerce Ministry, exports to the US accounted for almost 23% of India’s total shipments in the June quarter of FY26 and the first quarter of FY25, despite the fact that the country’s total exports increased less than 2% in Q1 FY26 and decreased more than 4% in Q4 FY25.

Trump has promised to levy tariffs of up to 200 percent on medications manufactured abroad, so there are still concerns. Additionally, smartphone exemptions may be eliminated based on future US choices.

In Q1 FY26, India’s exports to the US reached $25.52 billion, up nearly 23% from the year before. According to data from the Commerce Ministry, total trade was $32.41 billion for the quarter and above $86 billion for FY25.