The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warned that average global temperatures are expected to stay at or near record high levels for the next five years and that Arctic temperature anomalies are predicted to remain higher than the global average.

The report stated that although the average temperature over the next five years is expected to surpass pre-industrial levels by 1. 5 degrees Celsius, this does not constitute a violation of the Paris Agreement, which typically refers to warming over a longer period of 20 years.

During the years 2026–2030, the annual global mean near-surface temperatures are predicted to fall between 1. 3 and 1. 9 degrees Celsius higher than the 1850-1900 average.

The paper claims that there is an 86% probability that a year between 2026 and 2030 will be the warmest ever recorded, beating 2024.

The results show that there is a high likelihood (91%) that the global average near-surface temperature will temporarily surpass 1. 5 degrees Celsius above the 1850–1900 average levels for at least one year between 2026 and 2030.

In 2024, the global average surface temperature temporarily topped this level as well, measuring around 1. 55 degrees Celsius over the baseline prior to industrialization.

According to Dr Leon Hermanson, the report’s principal author, “an El Nino is predicted for the end of 2026, which increases the likelihood of 2027 being the next record-breaking year. ”

The central tropical Pacific (Nino 3. 4 area) has a five-year projected average temperature trend that suggests El Nino conditions, especially in 2027 and 2028.

Countries committed to maintain the long-term rise in global average surface temperature well below 2°C over pre-industrial levels and to strive to restrict the rise to 1. 5°C under the Paris Agreement.

Over 1. 5 degree Celsius warming, according to the scientific community, runs the risk of triggering more intense weather and climate change consequences, as well as reducing adaptation options.