Global brokerages applaud the US-India trade deal, but FII flows will eventually reverse

The India-US trade agreement was warmly hailed by international and Indian brokerages on Tuesday, who described it as a significant boost to India’s GDP, business profits, and foreign investment sentiment.
The stock markets mirrored the strong support from financial professionals, with the Sensex rising more than 4,200 points during intraday trading to reach a record high of 85,871.73.
According to brokers, lowering reciprocal tariffs on Indian exports to the US will improve economic prospects and lessen the strain on India’s external balances.
According to Goldman Sachs, the reduced tariffs could reduce India’s current account deficit by around 0.25 percent of GDP in 2026, bringing it down to almost 0.8 percent.
Additionally, the company anticipates that capital inflows would rebound after the acquisition is fully executed, which could bolster the rupee and lower negative risks to its dollar-rupee estimate.
According to Goldman Sachs, the Reserve Bank of India is probably nearing the end of its cycle of rate reductions and might maintain the repo rate at 5.25 percent through 2026.
It also mentioned that, in terms of export competitiveness, the trade agreement places India in a marginally better position than other Asian rising nations.
Even though corporate profits have been weak recently, Bernstein said it’s a good moment for investors to enter the market due to the positive attitude around India.
Nomura emphasized that foreign investment in India is expected to resume. After a poor FY26, it anticipates a gradual reversal of both foreign direct investment (FDI) commitments and foreign portfolio investor (FPI) flows.
In FY27, the brokerage anticipates a balance of payments surplus of about $7 billion. Additionally, it noted that labor-intensive export industries like manufacturing and textiles will have less margin pressure as a result of the tariffs being lowered to 18%.
India may increase technology imports and attract long-term US investments if it opens its markets to more US goods, according to BofA Securities.
It further stated that the impact of the new pricing structure will be minimal, despite some currency weakening.
According to their projections, India’s effective tariff rate might drop from approximately 30–35% to about 12–13% after current US duties on goods like steel, aluminum, and cars are taken into account.
Markets will now pay greater attention to the improving trend in corporate results, according to domestic brokerage Motilal Oswal.
The deal is very good for Indian stocks, according to Antique Stock Broking.
The anticipated return of foreign investors, which has been a significant worry for markets over the previous year, would be the main advantage, according to the statement.
Given this perspective, Antique has set a target for the Nifty 50 of 29,500 by March 2027, favoring equities in industries including capital goods, consumer goods, financials, and defense.
