The ambitious short-term goal of building 5 million metric tonnes (MMT) of green hydrogen generation capacity by 2030 has been set by India. According to a new analysis released on Thursday, export potential might lead to up to 1.1 MMT in green hydrogen demand, but realizing this goal requires unlocking green hydrogen demand at scale.

According to a collaborative analysis by Bain & Company, the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), and Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI), this potential can go untapped if there isn’t a corresponding drive on the demand side.

The paper provides a clear roadmap for how India may realize its objective and increase demand for green hydrogen on a broad scale. In order to create a strong domestic and global market for green hydrogen, it highlights the significance of focused policy interventions, strategic sector selection, and export alignment.

Incorporating green hydrogen into existing industrial processes such as fertilizer manufacture, oil refining, and PNG distribution could generate up to 3 MMT of demand by 2030, the paper states.

Globally, green steel, ammonia, and green hydrogen exports may add an additional 1.1 MMT, while public purchases of green steel for infrastructure might release 0.6 MMT of demand.

According to the paper, blending even tiny amounts of green hydrogen—10% in refining and 20% in fertilizers—could be accomplished with no cost increases.

These blend rates could be further increased as production prices continue to drop, allowing for greater demand without placing undue strain on end users.

Opportunities in specialized industries like chemicals, glass, and ceramics are also highlighted in the paper.

These industries presently use a lot of hydrogen, and by 2030, small-scale green hydrogen substitution might increase demand by up to 0.07 MMT, particularly for smaller players that pay more for grey hydrogen.

Leveraging public procurement is one of the report’s other important recommendations. The government can function as an anchor customer and establish long-term demand stability by requiring the use of green steel in government projects like houses, railroads, and bridges.

India is in a good position to meet demand worldwide because to its expanding renewable energy capabilities and comparatively cheap manufacturing costs.

According to the analysis, India could create an extra 0.8–1.1 MMT in demand if it were to capture just 5–7.5% of the green hydrogen import requirements of nations such as the EU and South Korea.

Green steel exports could contribute an additional 0.13–0.18 MMT, particularly to the EU under its new carbon price regulations.

Leaders in the industry praised the report’s conclusions. It serves as a “playbook” for putting India’s green hydrogen aspirations into practice, according to Sumant Sinha, Chairman of the CII Energy Transition and Hydrogen Council.

In order to facilitate broad adoption, Vineet Mittal, the Council’s co-chairman, emphasized the necessity of long-term offtake agreements, inexpensive financing, and input cost optimization.

Although the supply side is already growing quickly, demand-side measures like blending, public procurement, and export tactics are crucial to achieving the 2030 goal, according to Sachin Kotak of Bain & Company.