EU-China trade hostilities will escalate in 2026

The European Union (EU), in addition to imposing tariffs and sanctions, is set to maintain its path of diversifying its trading partnerships away from China and enhancing its trade defense measures, designed with China in mind; however, Beijing “doesn’t seem much to care,” as noted in a recent report.
A report from Politico indicates that EU-China trade relations are “at a standstill,” with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz expected to make his inaugural visit to China next month.
Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at French investment bank Natixis and a senior fellow at the think tank Bruegel, stated, “The trade deficit is not going to improve anytime; China is not going to consume our products. All of that is wishful thinking.”
In December of last year, Beijing made its latest retaliatory move in the ongoing dispute over EU tariffs on Chinese-produced electric vehicles set for 2024 by introducing punitive provisional tariffs on dairy goods.
The report also highlighted China’s dissatisfaction with Volkswagen, the German automotive leader, attempting to “negotiate an exemption from the EV tariffs.”
Under President Donald Trump, America’s shift toward protectionism is altering trade patterns, complicating efforts to address difficult issues such as market access and state subsidies. Meanwhile, Chinese exports to Europe are once again increasing and now exceed Europe’s exports to China, which are declining.
Recently, French President Emmanuel Macron expressed in an op-ed for the Financial Times that “Either we rebalance economic relations co-operatively — engaging China, the U.S. and the EU in a genuine partnership — or Europe will have no choice but to adopt more protectionist measures.”
Nonetheless, Chinese President Xi Jinping has yet to respond to calls for rebalancing trade.
Experts have cautioned that existing tensions could escalate even further.
Francesca Ghiretti, director of the China Europe Initiative at the Rand think tank, was cited in the report describing that “2026 will intensify the dynamics and tensions already visible in 2025.”
